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    花旗银行中国保险行业报告:游戏开动——拥抱金牛座时代 看涨!

  • 时间:2017-12-26 12:12:42作者:利率达人 点击:12次
  • China Insurance
    The Game Is On: Embracing Goldilocks Era for Life Growth, Margin

    报告基本结论:

     开启金牛时代Start of a goldilocks era; new policy a LT gain — Despite a “high base” since
    2015, life NBV will likely continue to embrace multi-year strong growth (we estimate
    a >20% CAGR through 2019E), thanks to a secular uptrend in penetration and
    product mix. No.134 Policy would cause a volume hiccup but also drive margins up.

    中产阶级的崛起和人寿险渗透起飞 Rise of middle class and takeoff of life penetration — China is on track to a
    “moderately prosperous” society as per capita GDP nears US$10,000. Global
    experience suggests this is a take-off point for life insurance penetration, which
    currently stands at 2.3% in China (vs 3.5% world average). Chinese provinces/cities
    surpassing US$10,000 per-capita GDP already account for c.50% of the national
    life market and are gaining national market shares (i.e. outgrowing national market)
    in recent years. And over time more provinces will join this middle class league.

     进入长期上升趋势Likely a (multi-) decade story after entering a secular uptrend — Socioeconomic
    variances would lead to a different speed of increase and steady-states
    for life insurance penetration. China only used 1/3 of the time the US did to raise
    L&H penetration from 2% to 3%. However, developed markets in the Americas
    (US/CA) and Asia (JP/KR/TW) share a common trend – once penetration takes off,
    the secular uptrend would last for 10+ years or even multiple decades. We expect
    15% L&H CAGR in 2016-25E and L&H penetration to c.5.7% in China by 2025E.

     利润率上升A secular margin uptrend; 3-stage product cycle — Developed markets
    (US/JP/KR/TW) suggest a typical 3-stage life product cycle. As the middle-class
    expands, growing protection awareness/gap would lead to a shift from savings and
    simple life products (stage 1) to protection/health products (stage 2). As society
    reaches affluent levels and population ages, the desire for investment would
    dominate, leading to a shift to annuity/linked products (stage 3). We think China is
    transitioning from stage 1 to 2, and coupled with govt window guidance, this would
    propel ongoing product mix upgrade and support (if not raise) margins.

     友邦中国!国内领导者AIA China today, domestic leaders tomorrow? — AIA China grew its NBV at a
    41% CAGR and more than tripled its margin in 2009-16. We attribute this to AIA’s
    top-notch agents and covering of some of China’s most affluent regions (BJ, SH,
    JS, GD) where life penetration and demand for protection rise sharply.

     谁是最好的,最适合的?Who is best positioned and most geared? — As pure lifers, China Life and NCI
    are most geared to the life insurance goldilocks era. However, we see Ping An as
    best placed given its geo and customer mix, agent quality and cross-selling.

     肯定看涨的立场Affirm bullish stance — Structural drivers aside, we continue to see a cyclical
    earnings upcycle and notable DPS growth through 2018E. Ping An-H is our core
    holding, while China Life-H and NCI-H are most geared to cyclical improvements.

    On the cyclical side, life insurers enjoy the following drivers:
     Earnings uptrend as the reserving cycle turns amid bottoming/rising 750-day
    moving average bond yields;
     DPS upcycle, alongside the earnings upcycle and given still room for higher
    dividend payout ratios (currently mostly 10%-35%, which we believe could rise to
    20%-50%);
     Likely sustainably high bond yields amid reflation and financial deleveraging
    engineered by the regulator; this in turn would be positive to insurers’ recurring
    investment returns and reserving trend; and
     Likely decelerating but still creditable NBV growth. We believe No.134 Policy
    would only cause a short-term deceleration in volume growth, but which would
    also force life insurers to further improve product mix towards protection products
    going forward.
    Structurally, we believe China has reached a takeoff point for the middle class, the
    rise of which would propel a secular uptrend for life insurance penetration and also
    product mix shift to protection/health insurance products.
    We are bullish on the China insurance sector. In particular, Ping An-H is our
    core-holding in the sector. We also highlight China Life-H and NCI-H as the most
    geared to life earnings turnaround given their pure life plays, sensitivity to interest
    rates, and relatively low base for profitability improvement.

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